Pardon Me, Good Sir
Not a lot of time left for Bush to make things worse. Short of launching a nuclear strike against Iran in the next 22 hours, we’re pretty much in the clear when it comes to atrocities eminating from the Oval Office. But what about past atrocities? The president has, in the face of rampant speculation, yet to issue a blanket pardon for war crimes/torture. And for the Republicans sake, I don’t believe that he will.
As we’ve mentioned, Obama’s approach to dealing with the crimes of the Bush Administration is among the most delicate political balancing acts he faces upon taking over the presidency. While there are more difficult policy issues to be handled, none of the other issues Obama faces is a political landmine with ideologues and pragmatists on both sides of the aisle. If Bush preemptively pardons everyone, it takes the burden off of Obama immediately. At that point he can simply say that he is following the rule of law by not pursuing prosecutions, put together a general inquiry without getting the DOJ involved, apologize publicly and move on. If Bush fails to pardon everyone, he leaves the landmine intact, and Obama will still be left with a delicate decision on how to deal with the war crimes of Bush’s Administration.
There is a twist here that could make Obama’s job even more difficult. If Bush literally goes 11th hour on the pardon, and fails to deliver the signed pardon to the DOJ before leaving office, technically Obama might have grounds to challenge the pardon before it goes into effect. This would force Obama’s hand as he would have to act quickly in making a decision. It would potentially become a public consitutional battle that Obama would want no part of, and yet would be forced to engage in. He would immediately be put at odds with Chief Justice Roberts and the Republican Congressional Delegation, or risk alienating his base in his first 100 hours in office. Yikes.
How savvy is Bush going to be heading out of office? Does he care about the long run political aspirations of his party? Does he want to send a real fuck you message to the incoming administration? The way he handles the issue of preemptive pardoning will answer those questions.
