LiberalEmpiricist

contact: w.spike.friedman@gmail.com

blogroll: hatethefuture
mikebroukhim
yglesias
krugman
538
andrewsullivan
ezraklein

random
This is probably too strong, but Hitler also gave great speeches.

Doug Haney, the city attorney in Carmel, Ind. and a Republican precinct committeeman at the CPAC.

Yes Doug, it is too strong to compare Obama to Hitler.

Comments (View)

Brad DeLong is Fantastic

Three-Word Slogans!

Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite: Maximilien Robespierre’s Revolutionary Dictatorship.

Travail, Famille, Patrie: Philippe Petain’s Collaborationist WWII-Era Dictatorship.

Discipline, Efficiency, Prosperity: Peter Orszag’s OMB Weblog. 

Orszag actually has done a truly fantastic job with the budget, and seeing him and Romer up there today made me a little misty.  America has a shot at this.

Comments (View)
Comments (View)

Happy With Barack? I Am.

I watched two excellent speeches tonight.  One given by the President of the United States, and the other given by a Harvard Psychologist at the TED Conference in 2004. I’m going to focus on the latter, at least initially.

The speech, given by Dan Gilbert, was on the synthesis of happiness; and you should probably spend the next twenty minutes watching it.  Or don’t and just read my three sentence synopsis of the talk.  Okay, cool.  Essentially, what he finds is that human beings have a unique capacity to be happy with their situation, lotto winners being just as happy in aggregate as paraplegics, and this effect, that we often dismiss is delusion, is as psychologically legitimate as so called “genuine happiness.”  We also have the capacity, derived from the structure of our prefrontal cortexes, to simulate situations before we experience them.  This gives us the ability to incorrectly predict what will make us happy, by allowing us to greatly exaggerate our delta-happiness between two different situations.  The experimental data used to prove this point, using amnesiac preferences, was stunning.  The speech closed with the following quote from Adam Smith:

“The great source of both the misery and disorders of human life, seems to arise from over-rating the difference between one permanent situation and another… Some of those situations may, no doubt, deserve to be preferred to others: but none of them can deserve to be pursued with that passionate ardour which drives us to violate the rules either of prudence or of justice; or to corrupt the future tranquillity of our minds, either by shame from the remembrance of our own folly, or by remorse from the horror of our own injustice. Wherever prudence does not direct, wherever justice does not permit, the attempt to change our situation, the man who does attempt it, plays at the most unequal of all games of hazard, and stakes every thing against scarce any thing.” - Adam Smith

Ideologues inherently overrate the difference between the ideology they hew to and that of their opposition.  This is a natural tendency of the human mind; we see a scenario unfolding in our mind and allow the worst cases to instill fear into our decision making process.  This leads to irrational decision making, or as Adam Smith would say, staking everything against scarce anything.  The Republicans thrived on this tendency for fifteen years with their exploitation of wedge issues.  Fear of the reprecussions of gay marriage and abortion led to an economic meltdown and two decade long wars.  This is not unique to the right, as many on the left have exploited this tendency as well (why do you think we don’t currently rely on nuclear power…) though clearly the Republican Party currently owns the disastrous ramifications of this behavior.

Barack Obama is not an ideologue, which is fortunate given the wealth of power he currently has.  He understands that so long as he behaves from a place of justice and prudence, he will end up creating a situation in which most will be able to be happy.   Hence, compromising on the stimulus bill in order to ensure something was done to employ Americans.  Hence reconsidering the nationalization of banks to ensure that capital flows freely and American businesses can produce goods and services.   This is a man who understands that cutting fifty billion dollars from a stimulus package in order to get the votes necessary for passage is not only good politics, but also good governance.  After too many years of folly and injustice, America finds itself at a moment of true peril.  I genuinely believe that we are lucky to be led by a man who understands far better than I ever could when preferences are just preferences, and when they are the necessary dictates for action.

Comments (View)
Take a cruise with the National Review’s finest… and Karl Rove!

‘Kathryn Jean Lopez (pictured above) has been featured in Playboy and praised for her “editorial daring.”’

Seriously.  That’s what it says on the website.

Take a cruise with the National Review’s finest… and Karl Rove!

‘Kathryn Jean Lopez (pictured above) has been featured in Playboy and praised for her “editorial daring.”’

Seriously. That’s what it says on the website.

Comments (View)
This has been a week of crazy.  Just insanity.  Look at this chart… the interest rate is at zero… we have one tool, and it is fiscal stimulus.  39 out of 100 senators voted against the idea of fiscal stimulus.  39 percent of the most important legislative body in the world decided economic suicide was the answer to unemployment unlike any seen since before World War II.  Just insane.

This has been a week of crazy.  Just insanity.  Look at this chart… the interest rate is at zero… we have one tool, and it is fiscal stimulus.  39 out of 100 senators voted against the idea of fiscal stimulus.  39 percent of the most important legislative body in the world decided economic suicide was the answer to unemployment unlike any seen since before World War II.  Just insane.

Comments (View)

Condoms. Feel. Weird.

Comments (View)

A Liberal Empiricist Gchat on Daschle, Stimulus, and Condoms

  • Alex: the Republicans are just straight up winning the spin battle right now
  • and apparently its required that you cheat on your taxes to be considered for Obama's cabinet
  • i mean COME ON!
  • pull it together
  • this is bush league bullshit out of the white house right now
  • and then they withdrew the nom?
  • after all that
  • ouch
  • Spike: never admit a mistake
  • ever
  • that's how you win
  • "I didn't pay taxes because I wasn't supposed to pay taxes"
  • Tom Daschle is a coward
  • always has been
  • good man
  • coward
  • at the end of the day, he was the best man to make sure universal health care could make it through the house
  • and senate
  • he was the best
  • Alex: for sure
  • Spike: who pays taxes on their housekeepers?
  • no one, that's who
  • seriously
  • that does not disqualify you from public service
  • Alex: universal health care is a fucking pipe dream
  • after this political travesty by the dems
  • THEY CONTROL GOVERNMENT
  • they shouldnt be losing
  • Spike: tom daschle is a fucking coward
  • he would have been confirmed
  • Alex: dems in the house packed this thing with bullshit spending that is useless
  • Obama's bill was great
  • now the house leadership is acting like the pigs in animal farm
  • Spike: kind of
  • I mean, it wasn't that bad
  • 50 mil for the NEA would be consumed quickly
  • I mean, it's not ideal, but it isn't bullshit if the goal is quick consumption and dispersal
  • Alex: the goal is a quick decisive bipartisan vote
  • THATS IT
  • THAT IS ALL
  • Spike: well, yeah
  • Alex: reid put up more fucking easy targets than I can count
  • Spike: the thing is that they were going to shoot at anything
  • they want the bill to fail
  • so they will force the dems to water it down
  • and then they won't vote for it
  • so when it fails they have no responsibility
  • that's their only move
  • they have no other move
  • if they want power in 2012
  • Alex: no
  • you make it about 4 marquis things
  • education, roads, broadband, and housing or whatever
  • no pet democratic projects from the 70's
  • snuck in
  • Spike: even if it's that they'll shoot at it
  • it doesn't matter
  • they have one play
  • Alex: of course but they're winning
  • Spike: they won't win if we don't water it down and they actually force a cloture vote
  • Alex: the bill is getting ugly
  • they're shooting down his nominees while holding up what is clearly a democratic bill that is losing popularity
  • its bad
  • im just really angry at the small percentage of money that wernt to hot-button issues that made easy political targets
  • condoms?
  • come on
  • they didnt see that coming?
  • Spike: but they made it about health care
  • and that was something they could spend money on that's made in the US
  • I mean, there was no way for it to be bulletproof
  • Alex: i disagree
  • but
  • hey
  • Spike: so you just have to accept the fact that there is no game theoretic reason for the republicans to get on board and make it happen
  • Alex: i can accept that
  • Spike: probably fewer condoms
  • sure
  • whatever
  • condoms feel weird
Comments (View)
Comments (View)
This is a president that, fuck, we have some sort of crush on this man. He speaks like a president, not always authoritative or anything but he can form sentences, complex sentences with beginnings and ends, subordinate clauses—you can hear his semicolons! He knows the answers to questions. He knows acronyms and the names of foreign leaders, their deputies. It is heartening, it makes our country look smart, and this is an important thing, something we have too long been without.… Toph, I would say, Toph, this man is actually bright, could be brilliant. This man still read books; encyclopedic and charming and so seemingly real… and though we hope that he is real even if he is not entirely real he is more real, and smart enough to seem real, and wins both ways…

Dave Eggers on a fictional president. GOTCHA!

(H/T slog)

Comments (View)